Saifur Rahman’s legacy

Jyoti Rahman
Published by the Daily Star on 13 September 2009.

BETWEEN 1972 and 1990, real (that is, inflation adjusted) per capita income in Bangladesh grew by an annual average of 1.1%. Since 1990, per capita income has grown by 3.4% a year. As a result, the proportion of people living below the poverty line — defined as daily calorie intake of 2122K — fell from 47.5% in 1992 to 40.4% in 2005. Over the same time, the proportion of undernourished people fell from 36% to 27%. In 1990, 26% of Bangladeshis had access to improved sanitation facilities, and only 4% of households had a television set; the proportions rose to 36% and 48% respectively by 2006.

It is clear that something happened in Bangladesh in the early 1990s, and we are better off for it. It is not an exaggeration to say that Saifur Rahman was at the centre of what happened. When one abstracts from the day-to-day politics of sound bites, 24-hour news cycles, and arguments about specific policies, it becomes clear that Saifur Rahman got some big things right that made the statistics cited above possible.

Budget 2009-10: The Long View

Jyoti Rahman

Published in the Forum on 6 July 2009.

This piece gives a macroeconomic analysis of the Budget.

Budget: The Good, the Bad and the Uncertain

Syeed Ahamed

Published in the Forum on 6 July 2009.

This piece gives an overall view of this year’s budget.

A reflection of unpreparedness?

Mridul Chowdhury

Published in the Daily Star on 30 June 2009.

THERE is no doubt that Digital Bangladesh is not only a catch-phrase for the government, but is also a reflection of the common man’s desire for a better and modern Bangladesh. The once popular phrase Shonar Bangla is now being replaced by “Digital Bangladesh.”

The national budget reflects the government’s commitment towards Digital Bangladesh, but possibly falls short with respect to giving a clear direction about the approach it will take to realise the goal. Its commitment is indicated by the fact that the total allocation for ICT-related components has substantially increased from last year.

However, there are also indications that the level of commitment may not be matched by the degree of preparation needed for creating Digital Bangladesh, since it is very much of a cross-cutting issue that permeates across almost all sectors.

Budget for recession and recovery

Syeed Ahamed

Published in the Daily Star on 15 June 2009.

INCIDENTALLY when the manifestos for National Election 2008 were being prepared, the world economy was already in recession and the election promises were linked with the recovery. This must have facilitated the budget to address the recession and election promises in chorus and with success.

The budget admits the challenges ahead forecasting a 5.5% GDP growth, but it also aims to change that conservative scenario by promoting investment, decentralisation and infrastructural development. The finance minister has received a mixed (though largely positive) response for various proposals. This article however underscores few uncertainties surrounding the budget proposals.

 

Risks to the economic outlook

Jyoti Rahman

Published in the Daily Star on 14 June 2009.

THE much anticipated and widely leaked budget has finally been declared. This piece will focus on the key macroeconomic forecasts that underpin the budget. The budget rests on a forecast GDP growth of 5.5% and an inflation of 6.5% in 2009-10. These forecasts feature possible impacts of the global recession, including impacts on remittance and exports. The fiscal deficit is forecast to remain within 5% of GDP next year, of which 2 percentage points are expected to be financed from external sources.

Are these forecasts sensible?

The devil is in implementation

Asif Saleh

Published in the Daily Star on 12 June 2009.

THE 2009-10 budget has been announced amid much fanfare. Thanks to the media and initiatives from various business groups, wide scale pre-budget aspirations of people received much air time. The reality, though, is that even the best of budgets and policy initiatives can fail due to issues beyond the control of the finance minister. The devil will not be in the details, but in implementation. So it’s important to get the potential road-blocks identified.

The first cut is the deepest

Syeed Ahamed

Published in the Daily Star on 11 June 2009.

THE finance minister is set to put forward the national budget for fiscal year 2009-10 today. This is the first budget of this government after the restoration of democracy and also the first budget of this finance minister under a democratically elected government.

Over the last few months numerous proposals/demands have been made to the finance minister from different stakeholder groups. At the same time, scores of speculations have been printed about the probable size and composition of the budget. Today, as the finance minister rehearses his budget speech, let’s go over some of the key issues that will be fundamental to assess the new budget once it is announced.

Surviving the Great Recession

Jyoti Rahman

Published in the Forum on 1 June 2009.

This piece explores how the budget can be tailored to weather the global financial crisis.

Fighting the great recession

Jyoti Rahman

Published in the Daily Star, 18 May 2009.

NO country has been immune from what is being dubbed as the Great Recession — the sharpest synchronised global slump since the Great Depression. Bangladesh is no exception. Compared to the average economic growth of 6.3% recorded in the past five years, the growth estimate for the current financial year is 5.9%, and it may dip to less than 4.5% next year according to a range of forecasters. This growth slowdown will undoubtedly have flow-on effects on employment and poverty alleviation.

To combat this, the government announced a Tk. 34 billion package on April 19. Interestingly, only about an eighth of the package is geared towards exports. More interestingly, the readymade garments (RMG) sector — the country’s largest export earner — received nothing. The bulk of the package is for agriculture, power generation, and social safety (such as food relief) programs.

How should we think about the package?